The Financial System Under Stress: An Architecture for the New World Economy: 1
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Here, the authors put forward an agenda for a new system of international economic institutions to fit the changes in inte.
International Financial System - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics
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An eBook version of this title already exists in your shopping cart. If you would like to replace it with a different purchasing option please remove the current eBook option from your cart. According to this view, the IMF should come to the rescue of governments in financial trouble, so long as they stay on the right path: the path of the convergence and the consensus. Were such assurances of obedience not given, money would indeed be wasted.
Its new companion agency, the World Trade Organization, should undertake the parallel work of policing the rules for free trade in goods and services.
The World Bank can carry out the subsidiary job of helping countries develop the physical, human and organizational instruments of development by proven means, directed to a well-known result. For example, the IMF staff has resisted the advocacy of fixed exchange rates, a mainstay of the exchange rate anchored stabilizations. When we expand the scope of our vision further we soon begin to realize that the effort to make the world safe for globally mobile capital is fraught with conflict and controversy.
In the here and now there is the debate, accelerated by the Mexican crisis of December to January , about the wisdom of dependence on flows of speculative and volatile foreign capital. In the longer future there is the suppressed, explosive paradox of a world economy in which capital becomes hypermobile while labor remains imprisoned in the nation-state or in regional blocs of relatively similar nation-states. The pride of such a system of free trade is to remain free by half. The half left unfree is sure to strike back.
Today in the world economy two great transformations and contests are in their youth. To understand them and to understand how they can speak to each other is to grasp the limits of the convergence thesis. It is also to see that there is no uncontroversial program of worldwide economic growth and coordination of which the Bretton Woods organizations could be the agents.
The first dispute concerns the growth paths of the developing countries. Against the operative orthodoxies of the present day there emerges the desire to find a growth plan relying primarily upon internal saving and investment, which upholds the possibility of active partnerships between government and business in the pursuit of a national development strategy and which dispenses with the costly crutch of an overvalued, fixed exchange rate as the condition of monetary stability. Such an alternative would renounce the attempt to escape politics. It would provide a minimal basis on which to confront the sources of inequality and instability in economic and social dualism, and thus to avoid a perennial and destructive pendular swing between economic orthodoxy and economic populism.
The attractions and prospects of such an alternative depend upon our success in giving to governmental activism, and to the partnership between governments and firms, forms that are more decentralized and diverse, and more directly subject to the double pressures of market competition and democratic accountability, than those we have so far associated with industrial and trade policy. There is a managerial program of conservative industrial renovation. Its complaints are the rigidity and the conflictual character of the present industrial system. Its first byword is flexibility, meaning more mobility for capital, achieved through more power of independent decision by the present owners and managers of capital: power, for example, to close plants or to reallocate jobs abroad.
Its second byword is cooperation: teamwork to motivate workers and to organize flexible, non-standardized production. Flexibility and cooperation are in tension. To manage this tension by devices such as the segmentation of the laborforce into more stable and less stable tiers has become the most urgent concern of the conservative renovators. The conventional social-democratic response to this program of conservative industrial renovation also has two elements.
The first plank in its platform is the commitment to fight a rearguard action, through stronger claims of job tenure and rights to prevent plant closings, in defense of the threatened positions of workers. Under such a program temporary advantages become vested rights. The second part of the social-democratic answer to the managerial program of conservative renovation is to multiply the recognition of stakes and stakeholders in firms so as to include workers, consumers, local governments and a variety of organized publics.
Pursued in earnest, such a program threatens to aggravate the complaints of rigidity and conflict that initially motivated the program of conservative renovation. It risks producing paralysis in economic activity. It digs into the niches of declining and besieged sectors of industry rather than laying the basis for a more solidaristic, popular alliance, connected with a long-term project of economic reconstruction.
The future of the popular and the progressive cause in the rich industrial democracies has come to depend in large measure upon the possibility of finding an alternative to this desperate social-democratic formula. For the moment, labor and social-democratic parties oscillate between the formula and the resigned acceptance of the program of conservative renovation, attenuated in its effects by the maintenance of the welfare state, the most lasting legacy of social democracy. Unable to choose between these two thorny paths, the social democrats find themselves disoriented.
Their program is often the program of their adversaries, with a 50 per cent discount. A successful answer is likely to involve the development of a more decentralized and experimentalist partnership between governments and firms. Semiindependent and competing agencies, standing between firms and governments, may take the lead in providing help and coordination.
They may make cultural and economic resources available on a variety of terms, experimenting with temporary, conditional and fragmentary property rights. The task of working out such a democratizing alternative to conventional social democracy turns out to be rich in analogies to the work of those who in developing countries look today for an alternative to the neoliberal project. The world in which international financial rescue and development assistance remain urgent is a world in which these conflicts—or conflicts like these—will intensify rather than wane.
Suppose the international turnaround and development-assistance missions continue to be executed by unified and centralized bureaucracies acting, more often than not, as the coordinating and certifying agents of private capital. The Bretton Woods organizations will then become evermore unabashed, although largely unaccountable, partisans in a struggle of interests and of visions.
They will serve as the instruments of the dominant economic program—the one that happens at the time to be favored by the leading industrial powers and, most especially, given the hegemonic status of the United States, by American government, business and academia. Even if you adhere to the dominant program, you may have reason to reject this result.
First, it helps strangle worldwide experimentation with diverse views and strategies. Second, it forces the rebellion against the ruling prescription to turn into a revolt against the system of international economic coordination itself. Third, the staffs of the Bretton Woods organizations may well respond by oscillating between the single-minded imposition of the official creed and the appeal to halfhearted and eclectic concessions, moderating one evil by resort to another.
The solution is to distinguish missions and agents. The barebones version of the present IMF would perform the minimalist clearing-house mission described below. Decentralized and competing organizations, working on different assumptions and promoting alternative programs, would do the work of international financial rescue and development assitance, with or against international private capital. Thus, the design of the regime of international economic coordination would embody the same principle of experimental variation in the institutional devices of the market economy that the prevailing ideas in economic theory and policy so strikingly fail to respect.
At the meeting at which the papers composing this book were delivered, the dead hand of supranational technocracy and academic orthodoxy rose up in defense of convergence and consensus. Even the gold standard was exhumed in the grinding quest for stability no matter what. We heard the voice of the Hegelian universal class, professing to represent no particular countries, classes, interests, ideologies or intellectual traditions, only the inexorable demands of an unyielding global progression.
A ragtag band of currency traders and academic malcontents provided such opposition, offering the tenuous affinity between financial speculation and intellectual subversion as a token vestige and reminder of the restlessness outside. A leaner, chastened version of the present IMF should carry out the clearing mission.
This is the work of preventing, through the development of payment mechanisms and the concession of bridge loans, breakdowns in trade flows resulting from exchange rate volatility and balance of payments difficulties. It would be appropriate for the national governments to impose much of this cost on the firms engaged in the trade and capital flows. After all, the clearing regime is an international, public machinery for generating benefits captured, disproportionately, by private agents. Two large restrictive qualifications should circumscribe the scope of this work.
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First, the clearing support should not be diverted into the maintenance of preconceived exchange rates among the trading partners or intervention in the wars between central banks and currency speculators. If the major trading partners believe it to be in their interest to impose some fix on exchange rates they should do it by other means and through other agents, respecting the integrity of the clearing system.
Persistent balance of payments difficulties resulting from wrongheaded economic policies, or from unresolved structural problems in a national economy, should not be addressed, directly or indirectly, by the clearing system. It is safe to entrust such a self-denying task but no more to technocrats like those who run and staff the IMF of today. The turnaround mission is the medium-term work of assisting countries struggling to overcome economic crises that interrupt growth, whether or not these crises manifest themselves in balance of payments breakdowns.
The Financial System Under Stress: An Architecture for the New World Economy
Among the crises may be the tense transition from one economic regime to another, such as is experienced by the formerly communist economies of today. Help comes in the form of subsidized finance and technical advice. It also comes in the form of temporary variances, or claims for such variances, in the rules governing the international movement of goods, services, labor and capital. Before suggesting the nature of the agents and of the funding of the turnaround mission, consider the third of the three tasks to be carried out by the new Bretton Woods—the venture-capital or development job.
There is no sharp distinction between these two missions, only a relative change of emphasis, scope and time horizon. The development work is the job of helping to fund and to shape a structure of self-sustaining growth, and of doing so in ways that are relatively uninhibited by the pressure for short-term profits. If the turnaround job is imagined as an analogical extension of domestic Chapter 11, the development job can be understood by analogy to both traditional development aid and private venture capital, taken as two extreme points of a spectrum of assistance.
When working with the poorest and most backward economies its focus would be, on the model of traditional development aid, the funding of basic educational and physical infrastructure. On the other hand, when dealing with more advanced economies, or more advanced sectors of backward economies, the emphasis would fall on financial and technical support for organizations—public, private and cooperative—that would, in turn, finance and inform small and medium-sized firms.
Direct assistance to firms would be exceptional and would be undertaken, when undertaken at all, for the purpose of experiment and example.
An Architecture for the New World Economy, 1st Edition
Neither the turnaround nor the developmental missions should be performed by centralized bureaucratic institutions like the IMF and the World Bank. Instead, a cast of multiple, overlapping and competing organizations should carry out each of these two missions.
These organizations would be established by, and accountable to, a representative supervisory organization within or outside the United Nations system. But they would enjoy broadranging entrepreneurial autonomy. They would be encouraged to try out different understandings of either the turnaround or the development jobs and to experiment with different practices in the actual execution of their work.
Cumulative experience would support some of the emerging practices while discrediting others. Like the IMF and the World Bank of today, these organizations would be technical—neither a political nor a purely entrepreneurial apparatus. Like the existing Bretton Woods organizations, they would draw most of their cadres from the staffer class of practical academics, ex-managers and cosmopolitan bureaucrats.
They would, however, be much smaller than the Bretton Woods mammoths and they would make no pretense to impartiality about doctrines and strategies.
On the contrary, an experimentalist partiality, energized and controlled by pluralism, would be their whole point. The more depoliticized and automatic the funding of such bodies, the better.